Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.1) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 3.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 13.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.9) | 14.7 | -0.1 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 14.6 | 8.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −1.0) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 1.4 | −9.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 5.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.3) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 2.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 34.2 | +31.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 18.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 2.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 17.9 | 12.1 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 16.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.7) | 16.9 | 18.5 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 22.7 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 0.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 5.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 6.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 14.2 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 11.8 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 20.4 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.9) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 14.7 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 8.8 | 18.7 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | 10.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 27.5 | +14.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 5.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 6.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.6) | 17.9 | 16.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 3.0 | −12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 8.2 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 13.1 | 20.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 12.7 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 19.0 | 15.8 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 12.6 | 19.2 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 18.6 | 9.7 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 12.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 12.9 | 16.1 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.9) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.8 | 17.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 5.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 8.8 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 17.4 | 13.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 6.7 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 14.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 6.4 | 11.5 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 5.4 | 2.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.1 | 7.3 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 24.8 | +16.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 6.4 | 14.5 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 14.9 | 2.7 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse