Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 6.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | 1.2 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 3.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 9.3 | 11.8 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 8.2 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Amari CooperWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 7.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.2) | 15.2 | 35.9 | +20.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7) | 16.5 | 17.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 6.0 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | 18.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 5.6 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.6) | 17.4 | 24.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 3.8 | 1.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 14.5 | 11.2 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 13.6 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 8.3 | 21.6 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 18.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.6 | 11.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 14.2 | 19.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 17.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.4) | 10.6 | 29.5 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 5.3 | 10.9 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 13.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 22.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | 8.2 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.8) | 16.6 | 10.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 13.6 | 7.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.1 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 10.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 13.4 | 15.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | 2.3 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 20.3 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 3.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 3.8 | −13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.8) | 16.6 | 11.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 2.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 6.5 | 8.6 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 11.9 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 2.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 6.3 | 1.6 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 13.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 13.5 | 30.4 | +16.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +2.9) | 22.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 25.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 13.7 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +1.1) | 20.1 | 15.7 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 33.6 | +17.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 7.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Diontae JohnsonWR CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 26.2 | +18.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 5.3 | 11.0 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.2) | 11.2 | 21.2 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 5.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 9.8 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 6.2 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 5.3 | 6.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 9.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 12.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 10.6 | 27.9 | +17.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 12.8 | 0.3 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 0.9 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 20.5 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse