Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3)12.31.2−11.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jonathan TaylorRB INDFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.7)18.614.6−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5)14.716.0+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5)17.57.3−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tyler GoodsonRB INDFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)2.11.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jerome FordRB CLEFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5)8.71.3−7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)12.712.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Chase BrownRB CINFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.8)13.510.1−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)7.120.5+13.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Josh DownsWR INDFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.66.4−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)15.614.4−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4)24.636.0+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.4)21.117.7−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)1.70.0−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Dylan SampsonRB CLEFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5)5.3-0.2−5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4DJ GiddensRB INDFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.5)4.227.9+23.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5)7.219.8+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.2)20.010.7−9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.4)19.19.5−9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Devin SingletaryRB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)3.11.1−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)13.213.9+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4)13.315.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3AJ DillonRB PHIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.20.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6)5.32.8−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Isiah PachecoRB KCFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)11.55.8−5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6)9.823.6+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Brian RobinsonRB SFFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4)5.12.2−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3)16.716.1−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)19.03.3−15.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)10.55.6−4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Emeka EgbukaWR TBBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4)11.714.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4)6.08.1+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W3TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5)6.87.7+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Tony PollardRB TENFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)13.39.2−4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3)16.414.4−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Rico DowdleRB CARFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)6.02.9−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W2J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4)12.915.5+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W2James CookRB BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.0)15.326.5+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5)9.918.8+8.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Chase BrownRB CINFade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3)19.18.5−10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W2De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.3)17.926.2+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W1Tony PollardRB TENFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)13.97.9−6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W1D'Andre SwiftRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3)16.79.5−7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W1Breece HallRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4)17.416.5−0.9✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 4 of 4 · 345 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse