Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W2 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 15.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 10.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 18.9 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 10.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 13.9 | 22.0 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | 12.1 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 14.0 | 5.0 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 0.4 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 17.9 | 13.3 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 14.9 | 23.0 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 7 of 7 · 613 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse