Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.9) | 15.4 | 9.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.2 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 14.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 12.6 | 18.2 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 1.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 18.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.8) | 15.5 | 8.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 2.0 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 9.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 5.3 | 5.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 11.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 18.5 | 16.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 23.0 | 16.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 11.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 12.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 4.2 | 2.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 24.9 | 26.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.4 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | 8.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4) | 18.2 | 17.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 7.4 | 28.7 | +21.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | 10.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 1.2 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 4.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 16.1 | 11.5 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.7) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 14.7 | 16.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 11.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NE, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | 9.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 7.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 7.3 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | 2.1 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 1.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 1.3 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | 10.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 18.9 | 10.4 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 13.5 | 10.1 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 20.5 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 6.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.8) | 19.8 | 17.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 15.6 | 14.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 24.6 | 36.0 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 21.1 | 17.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 25.5 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 4.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 18.3 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 5.3 | -0.2 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse