Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.7) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 18.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 17.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 15.7 | 2.8 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 2.4 | −8.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | -1.9 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 8.7 | 3.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.7) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 0.2 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 0.3 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 4 · 365 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse