Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 2.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 6.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 26.2 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 12.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 21.6 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | 23.7 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | 5.9 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.9 | 7.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 24.8 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 5.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 18.2 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 3.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 16.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 20.4 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse