Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 13.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 2.6 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 11.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 11.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 13.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 12.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 21.4 | 21.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 10.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse