Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)15.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mike WoodsWR CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7)16.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Garrett WilsonWR NYJFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)11.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7)20.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)11.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.82.8+0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jakobi MeyersWR LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse