Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 6.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 16.5 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.6) | 12.1 | 18.0 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 2.0 | −13.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 25.8 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.6) | 17.3 | 27.7 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 12.0 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 45.2 | +28.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 12.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 3.1 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | DJ MooreWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | -0.1 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | 6.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 16.8 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse