Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 1.9 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | -0.2 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 5.0 | 7.1 | +2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier RestrepoWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −1.2) | 24.1 | 0.0 | −24.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse