Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | 6.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 8.0 | 3.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.5 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 8.4 | 12.1 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | 28.1 | +20.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 22.0 | 7.7 | −14.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 16.7 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 15.5 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 33.1 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | 9.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 13.2 | 14.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 1.7 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 15.6 | 14.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 22.0 | 17.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 7.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 6.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 14.2 | 8.7 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 13.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.2) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 19.6 | 17.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 23.4 | 22.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 11.6 | 15.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 9.1 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 19.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 0.0 | −10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 6.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 20.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 8.4 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.9) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 17.6 | 11.4 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 11.6 | 22.6 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 7.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 9.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.8 | 1.4 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.0 | -0.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 12.7 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 2.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 12.2 | 10.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 17.0 | 19.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | 7.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 9.8 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | 14.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 15.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 6.4 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 11.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 6.1 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 0.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | 10.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 16.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 14.1 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 2.1 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 13.6 | 14.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 13.5 | 20.9 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 5.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 14.9 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 16.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 14.5 | 14.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 8.1 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 9.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 12.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse