Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 5.8 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 2.6 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 13.6 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 5.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 7.6 | 5.8 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 14.7 | 12.6 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 12.0 | 12.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | 6.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 3.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 7.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 19.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.0) | 19.2 | 5.4 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 21.1 | 23.7 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 4.0 | −11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 1.8 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 15.8 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 1.8 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 25.1 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 8.3 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 6.3 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 6.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 6.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 4.3 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.9) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 5.9 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 19.1 | 30.2 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.7) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | 5.7 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 11.4 | 16.2 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 31.0 | +13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 12.8 | 8.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +1.2) | 23.4 | 4.8 | −18.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 4.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 5.8 | 10.3 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 10.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 4.1 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 23.0 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 12.3 | 18.3 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.4) | 23.5 | 4.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.2) | 13.1 | 5.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.7) | 17.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | 19.1 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 11.9 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 6.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 21.6 | 27.9 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 3.7 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | 18.7 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 9.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 11.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | 5.6 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.9 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 10.9 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.6 | 1.3 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 4.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 18.1 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse