Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 2.2 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 13.2 | 26.4 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 2.6 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 14.7 | 12.6 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | 6.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 21.1 | 23.7 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 1.8 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 8.3 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.9) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 5.9 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 31.0 | +13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 4.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +1.2) | 13.1 | 5.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.7) | 17.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 21.6 | 27.9 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 9.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 14.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 32.4 | +18.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 12.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 18.5 | 16.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 6.3 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 27.0 | +18.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.4 | 13.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 3.3 | 8.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.9) | 24.9 | 26.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 7.6 | 5.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 8.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.7) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 31.7 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 9.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 16.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 17.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 12.4 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 33.5 | +19.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | -0.2 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 7.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 21.5 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 20.0 | 10.7 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 21.4 | 24.0 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 14.6 | 6.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 7.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 9.5 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse