Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6)7.92.6−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Cooper KuppWR SEAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5)11.66.6−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7)17.131.7+14.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jonathan TaylorRB INDFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6)18.614.6−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jauan JenningsWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6)11.06.4−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4)16.622.6+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ben SkowronekWR PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.57.3−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3)9.912.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5)16.520.2+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5)14.912.2−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Romeo DoubsWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4)12.029.8+17.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Calvin Austin IIIWR PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3)9.53.3−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Breece HallRB NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4)14.816.1+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4)12.712.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5)18.613.0−5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)13.623.8+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3)9.915.4+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Josh DownsWR INDFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4)11.66.4−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3)21.117.7−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5)7.017.1+10.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ricky PearsallWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5)14.88.6−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6)13.733.5+19.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3)6.92.0−4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)9.311.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4)8.221.5+13.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Alvin KamaraRB NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4)14.66.6−8.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Nick ChubbRB HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3)9.27.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4)19.19.5−9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)6.68.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)15.44.9−10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5)19.832.8+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3)12.719.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected −0.3)18.312.5−5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4)11.72.5−9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Chuba HubbardRB CARFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3)13.09.6−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4)10.314.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7)17.38.9−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3George PickensWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6)11.717.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W3James CookRB BUFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)19.720.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Rashid ShaheedWR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4)9.98.2−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jalen TolbertWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)6.07.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3KaVontae TurpinWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)5.38.8+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)8.821.2+12.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Chase BrownRB CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4)15.26.0−9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Ryan FlournoyWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.64.1+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.4)16.414.4−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W2CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)15.820.2+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W2James CookRB BUFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.4)15.326.5+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Chase BrownRB CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3)19.18.5−10.6✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 6 of 6 · 550 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse