Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 4.4 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 16.3 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 11.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 19.6 | 24.9 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 18.8 | 35.3 | +16.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 14.8 | 24.5 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 23.4 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 18.0 | 31.1 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 22.6 | 19.3 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 15.9 | 16.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 20.4 | 8.8 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 8.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 15.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4) | 19.6 | 12.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 14.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 19.1 | 32.9 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 7.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 21.5 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4) | 18.1 | 23.4 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 16.2 | 25.5 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 11.7 | 4.5 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 9.2 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 12.1 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected +0.3) | 19.9 | 15.5 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 15.0 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 19.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 16.8 | 20.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 5.9 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 22.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 7 of 7 · 651 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse