Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Mike EvansWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6)10.712.6+1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5)12.118.0+6.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jauan JenningsWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4)7.81.8−6.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaylen WaddleWR DENFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.4)12.314.5+2.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3)19.815.5−4.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake LondonWR ATLBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5)15.514.6−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)14.29.1−5.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.4)15.725.8+10.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.6)17.327.7+10.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7)18.520.7+2.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kalif RaymondWR CHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)8.321.0+12.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)17.624.8+7.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)17.512.5−5.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4)12.028.4+16.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris OlaveWR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.8)17.119.7+2.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)10.94.0−6.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Luther Burden IIIWR CHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)9.019.8+10.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Drake LondonWR ATLBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.5)12.18.9−3.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Parker WashingtonWR JAXFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.316.8+5.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse