Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C

Play action: every call

Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.

2024 backtest

64–72–9

47.1% vs 48.1% baseline

Win rate 47.1% (95% 38.9%–55.4%) vs baseline 48.1%

2025 backtest

–

no graded calls

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

0–1

0.0% vs 49.6% baseline

Win rate 0.0% (95% 0.0%–79.3%) vs baseline 49.6%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR29–36–244.6%48.1%
QB24–27–547.1%50.0%
TE11–9–255.0%43.5%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.559–67–946.8%48.1%
0.5–15–550.0%48.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Play action calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Joe FlaccoQB INDBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6)14.114.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Jared GoffQB DETFade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.4)21.59.2−12.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Drew LockQB NYGFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3)11.27.8−3.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3)17.424.4+7.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.46.0−10.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Play action vs CHI, expected +0.3)18.725.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Sam DarnoldQB MINBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4)17.122.9+5.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Aaron RodgersQB NYJBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)15.730.1+14.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Russell WilsonQB PITFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3)13.18.4−4.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4)16.417.6+1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Anthony RichardsonQB INDBoost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4)17.721.2+3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Bo NixQB DENFade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3)18.012.2−5.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4)16.928.5+11.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5)19.334.6+15.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Jayden DanielsQB WASFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4)18.113.4−4.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)15.417.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Play action vs DEN, expected −0.3)24.623.6−1.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)20.629.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W9C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3)14.111.5−2.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Bo NixQB DENBoost (Play action vs BAL, expected +0.3)14.617.7+3.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Jared GoffQB DETFade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4)18.315.5−2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6)11.520.8+9.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)15.428.6+13.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Joe FlaccoQB INDBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)13.626.6+13.0✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse