Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)3.59.2+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)5.87.9+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.63.7+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)10.526.0+15.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)3.09.5+6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.5)19.520.6+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.720.4+7.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalin HyattWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.54.7+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.5)12.023.6+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)13.331.0+17.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.5)18.125.6+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyle JuszczykRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.15.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Demarcus RobinsonWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)6.26.9+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)21.627.9+6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kendrick BourneWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.424.2+15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)4.09.2+5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mac JonesQB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)12.122.2+10.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake TongesTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)4.717.1+12.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)18.831.1+12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)2.84.4+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)23.324.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)4.15.3+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)0.43.1+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.5)15.316.1+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Greg DortchWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.87.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Emari DemercadoRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.910.1+7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)1.32.7+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)9.012.4+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)5.312.2+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.918.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.910.4+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)3.66.4+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)10.314.9+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)4.66.1+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)19.720.8+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)10.814.5+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)1.74.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)8.117.6+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.67.5+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Ollie Gordon IIRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.69.8+7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)8.518.4+9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)12.317.4+5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5)17.520.9+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)11.311.8+0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.68.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.04.7+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.75.7+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)8.224.4+16.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.55.2+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Luke McCaffreyWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.64.9+3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Ben SinnottTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.7+1.2❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 151 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse