Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5)21.622.7+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5)14.530.9+16.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)14.519.5+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.5)10.426.9+16.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.5)17.419.2+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.5)19.120.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jared GoffQB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.5)17.020.6+3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.5)22.029.4+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5)15.625.8+10.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Davis MillsQB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.5)12.414.5+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5)11.819.3+7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)23.625.6+2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5)19.625.3+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5)16.922.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.5)14.426.0+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.5)19.520.6+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.5)12.023.6+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.5)18.125.6+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mac JonesQB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)12.122.2+10.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.5)15.316.1+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5)17.520.9+3.4❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse