Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.4 | 8.3 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.0 | 6.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 20.5 | 18.7 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.5 | 16.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 10.5 | 3.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 17.3 | 9.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 17.1 | 5.5 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse