Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Max BrosmerQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 19.0 | 8.1 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 22.3 | 15.4 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.5) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 5.8 | −14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.9 | 8.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.5) | 14.1 | 7.8 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 16.6 | 16.1 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 23.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse