Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.8 | 5.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.5 | 3.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.5 | 8.3 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.6 | 10.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.9 | 16.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 10.9 | 18.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.3 | 11.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.4 | 5.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 3.3 | 7.1 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 22.8 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 5.6 | 12.3 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 7.9 | 15.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 10.7 | 11.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 6.7 | 14.3 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 4.0 | 11.3 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse