Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)3.54.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Luke SchoonmakerTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.33.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)1.14.1+3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Eric SaubertTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.92.0+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.65.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)8.015.0+7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.012.3+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)1.33.2+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)10.145.6+35.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Devin CulpTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.77.6+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)14.015.5+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.3+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.98.4+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.412.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.71.4+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)3.14.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jeremy RuckertTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)2.16.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)10.916.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.69.9+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)4.79.0+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.910.3+8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)9.518.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.11.5+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)8.411.8+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)6.614.4+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.028.1+22.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)3.59.2+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)10.526.0+15.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake TongesTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)4.717.1+12.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)2.84.4+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)0.43.1+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)5.312.2+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)3.66.4+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)8.117.6+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.67.5+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)8.518.4+9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)8.224.4+16.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.55.2+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Ben SinnottTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.7+1.2❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse