Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.0 | 2.2 | +1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Matt SokolTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse