Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.44.6+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.84.3+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)2.03.4+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)4.77.1+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)5.815.6+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)11.212.5+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)5.213.9+8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.419.2+11.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)9.814.0+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)4.513.8+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.77.6+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)7.810.0+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.024.2+8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)13.226.9+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.78.1+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)12.218.3+6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.528.0+20.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)17.829.4+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.76.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.011.5+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Christian KirkWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.116.4+11.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.617.0+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jayden HigginsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.213.8+8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.919.5+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11John Metchie IIIWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.013.5+10.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)4.39.4+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)13.415.0+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Pat BryantWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)4.05.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.020.8+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.88.8+6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.31.9+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)12.621.6+9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)19.538.1+18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)5.87.9+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.63.7+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)3.09.5+6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.720.4+7.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalin HyattWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.54.7+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Demarcus RobinsonWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)6.26.9+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kendrick BourneWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.424.2+15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)4.09.2+5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)23.324.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)4.15.3+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Greg DortchWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.87.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)1.32.7+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.918.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)10.314.9+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)4.66.1+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)10.814.5+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)1.74.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)12.317.4+5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)11.311.8+0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.68.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.04.7+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Luke McCaffreyWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.64.9+3.3❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse