Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Scott MillerWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Marquez CallawayWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Britain CoveyWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ko KieftTE TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Malik HeathWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Xavier GipsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cameron LatuTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.10.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Rakim JarrettWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey PalmerWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)13.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jalen McMillanWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Darius CooperWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Beaux CollinsWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Andy DaltonQB CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −1.1)13.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10David MooreWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Equanimeous St. BrownWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dante PettisWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Hunter RenfrowWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −0.4)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jack StollTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James MitchellTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ronnie BellWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Brycen TremayneWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Bub MeansWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jermaine JacksonWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dalevon CampbellWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Andy DaltonQB CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9David MooreWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Hunter RenfrowWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dan ChisenaWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Bo MeltonWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9James MitchellTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dalevon CampbellWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyler BoydWR TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7James ProcheWR TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaelon DardenWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Thomas OdukoyaTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Javon BakerWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj WashingtonWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6David MooreWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Deonte HartyWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)3.10.0−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dan ChisenaWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 5 · 401 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse