Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 15.4 | 10.9 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 6.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.1 | 8.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik WillisQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 16.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 11.4 | 4.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 10.8 | 5.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 14.5 | 11.2 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.3 | 9.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 5.7 | 7.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 15.8 | 28.2 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 8.1 | 0.0 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 6.6 | 12.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 3.6 | 3.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 9.4 | 7.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 8.5 | 0.0 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik WillisQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 16.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 5.7 | 24.8 | +19.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 2.4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 9.3 | 22.9 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 5.7 | 17.3 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 3.6 | 4.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 10.6 | 27.1 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 3.1 | 12.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.3 | 14.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Amari CooperWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 13.7 | 3.6 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 11.8 | 3.5 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 14.8 | 10.7 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 3.4 | 10.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 10.8 | 8.4 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 8.6 | 2.9 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 19.8 | 31.2 | +11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 4.6 | 11.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 5.5 | 3.3 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse