Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 19.5 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 8.8 | 11.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −1.1) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 14.0 | 17.1 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −1.1) | 8.7 | 10.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 14.4 | 16.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −1.1) | 20.3 | 42.7 | +22.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 16.8 | 17.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 17.8 | 23.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −1.1) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1) | 16.6 | 27.1 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse