Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Darren WallerTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Ben MasonTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Tyler KroftTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Evan EngramTE JAXFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Kevin RaderTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Trevon WescoTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Zach DavidsonTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Josh PedersonTE JAXFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Jack StollTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Thomas OdukoyaTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Ben MasonTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Blake BellTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15David NjokuTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Joseph FortsonTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Jared WileyTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Ian ThomasTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Noah TogiaiTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Feleipe FranksTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Tyler KroftTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Zach GentryTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Jesper HorstedTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Jack StollTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Cole FotheringhamTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11John ShenkerTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W9Parker HesseTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W9James MitchellTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W9Henry PearsonTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W9Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4N'Keal HarryTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Brycen HopkinsTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Nick MuseTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Henry PearsonTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Davis AllenTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W1Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W1Sean McKeonTE DALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W1Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W1Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL)0.7––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse