Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.4 | 1.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 3.6 | 3.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.2 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse