RB · MIN · 207 lines since 2023
Aaron Jones Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Aaron Jones, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 56% — we make it 58%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 11 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 19 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 17.5 rush attempts — we project 19 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 95.5 rush + rec yds — we project 100 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 71.5 rush yds — we project 78 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 23, under 21 (44 graded)
- Receiving yards over 22, under 22 (44 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 21 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 31 (44 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 6 (12 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 6 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: model 56–68 · Missed tackles 17–11 · Pre-snap motion 11–4 · Starters out on defense 5–4 · Dome team outdoors 4–8 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–2 · Short week 4–0 · Middle of the field 2–0 · Explosive plays 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 53% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 59% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 17.5 | 19 | 59% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 95.5 | 100 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 78 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 17 | 45% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 81 | 64% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 62 | 61% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 44 | 34% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 64% TD chance | 64% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 20 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 69 | 90% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 42% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 18 | 67% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 68 | 60% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.5 | 46% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 12.5 | 11 | 42% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 48 | 43% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.2 | 39% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 40% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 11.5 | 9 | 31% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 39 | 39% / 49% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.7 | 42% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 45% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 46 | 47% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.4 | 38% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 10.5 | 12 | 60% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 42 | 53% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.4 | 35% / 47% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 13.5 | 11 | 29% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 40 | 32% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 46% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 43% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 11.5 | 9 | 32% / 56% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 47 | 40% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.2 | 40% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 40% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 10.5 | 6 | 13% / 44% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 26 | 28% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.1 | 39% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 42% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 8.5 | 6 | 27% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 23 | 38% / 49% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.1 | 39% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.6 | 30% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 6.5 | 7 | 57% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 28 | 54% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.9 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 44% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 9.5 | 12 | 71% / 53% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 52 | 62% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 59% TD chance | 59% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.9 | 47% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 12.5 | 18 | 78% / 47% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 79 | 76% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 43% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 56 | 47% / 49% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 15 | 38% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 25% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 60 | 46% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 59 | 43% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 67 | 50% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 50% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 60 | 48% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 68 | 52% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 45% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 54 | 39% / 49% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 14 | 43% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 58 | 44% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 40% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 72.5 | 70 | 47% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 78 | 54% / 51% | 64 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 68 | 47% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 45% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 46 | 49% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 43% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 66 | 49% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 45% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 57 | 48% / 51% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 57 | 59% / 49% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 40% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 60 | 60% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 58 | 53% / 51% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 41% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 77 | 61% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 41% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 34 | 27% / 51% | 120 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 39% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 41 | 35% / 50% | 127 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 37% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 29 | 21% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 17 | 32% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 31% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 30 | 19% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 14 | 29% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 30 | 17% / 49% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 33% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 25 | 16% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 11 | 38% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 22 | 27% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 5.6 | 20% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 13% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 19 | 6% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 37% / 51% | -4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 19 | 11% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 24.5 | – | – / 49% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 61.5 | – | – / 49% | 41 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 66.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 66.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 66.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 52.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 55.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 55.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 55.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 28.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 57.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 57.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 46.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 47.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 40.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 54.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 54.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology