Edgehalla

QB · PIT · 193 lines since 2023

Aaron Rodgers Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Aaron Rodgers, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 9% — we make it 10%
  • Line 34.5 pass attempts — we project 34 (P(over) 48%)
  • Line 20.5 completions — we project 22 (P(over) 61%)
  • Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 48%)
  • Line 222.5 pass yds — we project 238 (P(over) 57%)
  • Line 1.5 rush yds — we project 5.7 (P(over) 67%)

Over/under record by market

  • Passing yards over 19, under 19 (38 graded)
  • Passing TDs over 18, under 20 (38 graded)
  • Rushing yards over 13, under 18 (31 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 1, under 37 (38 graded)
  • Pass attempts over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
  • Completions over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 3, under 7 (10 graded)

Our calls on him: Low total (40.5 or less) 3–11 · Short week 1–3 · model 30–39 · Freezing 0–3 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–0 · High total (48.5+) 3–3 · Wind 15+ mph 3–0 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Play action 1–1 · Blitz-heavy defense 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Aaron Rodgers prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%–…
2026 W5Pass att34.53448% / 51%–…
2026 W5Cmp20.52261% / 50%–…
2026 W5Pass TDs1.5148% / 45%–…
2026 W5Pass yds222.523857% / 50%–…
2026 W5Rush yds1.55.767% / 51%–…
2026 W4Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2026 W4Pass TDs1.5139% / 37%3over
2026 W4Pass yds214.520546% / 50%299over
2026 W4Rush yds1.56.069% / 49%0under
2026 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 7%0under
2026 W3Pass TDs1.5135% / 36%3over
2026 W3Pass yds221.521446% / 50%292over
2026 W3Rush yds0.54.469% / 50%10over
2026 W2Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2026 W2Pass TDs0.5166% / 67%0under
2026 W2Pass yds209.518839% / 50%187under
2026 W2Rush yds0.55.072% / 49%5over
2026 W1Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 7%0under
2026 W1Pass TDs1.5144% / 44%1under
2026 W1Pass yds212.522054% / 50%221over
2026 W1Rush yds0.56.875% / 49%-3under
2025 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%0under
2025 W18Pass att32.53249% / 48%47over
2025 W18Cmp20.52153% / 51%31over
2025 W18Pass TDs1.5131% / 38%1under
2025 W18Pass yds207.519946% / 50%294over
2025 W18Rush att1.5250% / 40%1under
2025 W18Rush yds0.52.962% / 50%20over
2025 W17Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 4%0under
2025 W17Pass att28.52847% / 53%39over
2025 W17Cmp18.51850% / 50%21over
2025 W17Pass TDs1.5135% / 36%0under
2025 W17Pass yds183.517546% / 50%168under
2025 W17Rush att1.5258% / 47%1under
2025 W17Rush yds0.53.968% / 42%6over
2025 W16Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2025 W16Pass att32.53355% / 51%41over
2025 W16Cmp21.52253% / 50%27over
2025 W16Pass TDs1.5141% / 47%1under
2025 W16Pass yds233.523249% / 50%266over
2025 W16Rush yds0.52.763% / 46%9over
2025 W15Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 5%0under
2025 W15Pass att31.53148% / 50%27under
2025 W15Cmp20.52046% / 52%23over
2025 W15Pass TDs1.5144% / 48%2over
2025 W15Pass yds217.521649% / 52%224over
2025 W15Rush att1.5260% / 43%0under
2025 W15Rush yds0.54.270% / 44%0under
2025 W14Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%1over
2025 W14Pass att31.53253% / 49%34over
2025 W14Cmp19.52157% / 53%23over
2025 W14Pass TDs1.5136% / 39%1under
2025 W14Pass yds204.519344% / 51%284over
2025 W14Rush att1.5253% / 38%2over
2025 W14Rush yds0.52.965% / 45%0under
2025 W13Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%0under
2025 W13Pass att30.53151% / 49%21under
2025 W13Cmp19.52052% / 50%10under
2025 W13Pass TDs1.5141% / 45%0under
2025 W13Pass yds202.519748% / 50%117under
2025 W13Rush att1.5260% / 38%1under
2025 W13Rush yds0.54.468% / 42%0under
2025 W11Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2025 W11Pass att31.53254% / 52%15under
2025 W11Cmp22.52140% / 50%9under
2025 W11Pass TDs1.5256% / 60%1under
2025 W11Pass yds229.524758% / 50%116under
2025 W11Rush yds0.55.773% / 46%8over
2025 W10Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2025 W10Pass att32.53250% / 50%31under
2025 W10Cmp22.52243% / 48%16under
2025 W10Pass TDs1.5144% / 48%1under
2025 W10Pass yds219.521247% / 50%161under
2025 W10Rush att1.5258% / 45%0under
2025 W10Rush yds0.54.169% / 51%0under
2025 W9Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 7%0under
2025 W9Pass att33.53559% / 51%35over
2025 W9Cmp22.52355% / 51%25over
2025 W9Pass TDs1.5255% / 55%1under
2025 W9Pass yds237.525759% / 50%203under
2025 W9Rush yds0.55.070% / 52%0under
2025 W8Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%0under
2025 W8Pass att32.53459% / 48%36over
2025 W8Cmp21.52255% / 53%24over
2025 W8Pass TDs1.5145% / 52%2over
2025 W8Pass yds222.523053% / 50%219under
2025 W8Rush att1.5266% / 48%0under
2025 W8Rush yds1.55.868% / 50%0under
2025 W7Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 6%0under
2025 W7Pass att29.53159% / 53%34over
2025 W7Cmp21.52043% / 50%23over
2025 W7Pass TDs1.5250% / 54%4over
2025 W7Pass yds224.523756% / 51%249over
2025 W7Rush yds1.58.077% / 43%6over
2025 W6Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 6%0under
2025 W6Pass att29.52949% / 52%30over
2025 W6Cmp20.51940% / 48%21over
2025 W6Pass TDs1.5140% / 42%2over
2025 W6Pass yds210.519844% / 50%235over
2025 W6Rush yds0.58.681% / 50%1over
2025 W4Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 4%0under
2025 W4Pass att30.53152% / 52%22under
2025 W4Cmp19.52053% / 53%18under
2025 W4Pass TDs1.5140% / 40%1under
2025 W4Pass yds202.519345% / 50%200under
2025 W4Rush att1.5378% / 41%3over
2025 W4Rush yds1.57.476% / 49%8over
2025 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2025 W3Pass att34.53239% / 49%23under
2025 W3Cmp22.52137% / 51%16under
2025 W3Pass TDs1.5148% / 46%2over
2025 W3Pass yds230.522748% / 50%139under
2025 W3Rush att1.5270% / 42%4over
2025 W3Rush yds0.57.779% / 46%1over
2025 W2Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 6%0under
2025 W2Pass att32.53245% / 48%33over
2025 W2Cmp21.52142% / 50%18under
2025 W2Pass TDs1.5146% / 43%1under
2025 W2Pass yds228.521845% / 49%203under
2025 W1Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 6%0under
2025 W1Pass att31.53149% / 48%30under
2025 W1Cmp19.52054% / 51%22over
2025 W1Pass TDs1.5136% / 39%4over
2025 W1Pass yds202.520049% / 50%244over
2025 W1Rush att1.5384% / 43%1under
2025 W1Rush yds0.51186% / 43%-1under
2024 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2024 W18Pass TDs1.5145% / 43%4over
2024 W18Pass yds229.521944% / 50%274over
2024 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W17Pass TDs1.5128% / 37%0under
2024 W17Pass yds220.520843% / 50%112under
2024 W16Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W16Pass TDs1.5142% / 47%1under
2024 W16Pass yds243.523145% / 50%256over
2024 W15Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 10%0under
2024 W15Pass TDs1.5143% / 43%3over
2024 W15Pass yds232.523551% / 50%289over
2024 W15Rush yds0.54.368% / 50%45over
2024 W14Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W14Pass TDs1.5136% / 38%1under
2024 W14Pass yds229.521342% / 50%339over
2024 W14Rush yds1.53.659% / 49%0under
2024 W13Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W13Pass TDs1.5141% / 39%2over
2024 W13Pass yds222.521848% / 50%185under
2024 W11Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2024 W11Pass TDs1.5149% / 46%2over
2024 W11Pass yds236.522948% / 50%184under
2024 W10Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2024 W10Pass TDs1.5251% / 51%0under
2024 W10Pass yds243.524049% / 50%151under
2024 W9Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2024 W9Pass TDs1.5145% / 50%3over
2024 W9Pass yds232.523451% / 50%211under
2024 W9Rush yds0.55.270% / 46%-1under
2024 W8Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%0under
2024 W8Pass TDs1.5146% / 49%2over
2024 W8Pass yds239.524553% / 50%233under
2024 W8Rush yds1.57.974% / 50%0under
2024 W7Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2024 W7Pass TDs1.5143% / 46%1under
2024 W7Pass yds224.522350% / 50%276over
2024 W7Rush yds2.57.169% / 49%0under
2024 W6Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%0under
2024 W6Pass TDs1.5138% / 39%2over
2024 W6Pass yds214.521852% / 50%294over
2024 W6Rush yds3.58.468% / 49%0under
2024 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 9%0under
2024 W5Pass TDs1.5134% / 42%2over
2024 W5Pass yds222.522250% / 50%244over
2024 W5Rush yds4.58.465% / 50%0under
2024 W4Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 13%0under
2024 W4Pass TDs1.5145% / 45%0under
2024 W4Pass yds220.522150% / 49%225over
2024 W4Rush yds3.58.870% / 46%26over
2024 W3Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2024 W3Pass TDs1.5144% / 44%2over
2024 W3Pass yds215.522052% / 50%281over
2024 W3Rush yds1.51.450% / 46%18over
2024 W2Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 12%0under
2024 W2Pass TDs1.5145% / 43%2over
2024 W2Pass yds226.522348% / 50%176under
2024 W2Rush yds1.5020% / 46%1under
2024 W1Any TD––– / 8%0under
2024 W1Pass TDs1.5–– / 45%1under
2024 W1Pass yds231.5–– / 49%167under
2024 W1Rush yds1.5–– / 50%-1under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 12%0under
2023 W1Pass TDs1.5–– / 45%0under
2023 W1Pass yds232.5–– / 51%0under
2023 W1Rush yds3.5–– / 51%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Under 214.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 214.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 209.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Under 212.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 207.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 183.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 32.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 233.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 217.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 204.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 202.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Over 229.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Over 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 229.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 219.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W9 Over 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W9 Over 237.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 237.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 224.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Under 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Under 210.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology