Edgehalla

TE · DEN · 144 lines since 2023

Adam Trautman Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Adam Trautman, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 9% — we make it 5%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 18, under 27 (45 graded)
  • Receptions over 13, under 22 (35 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 6, under 49 (55 graded)
  • Longest reception over 5, under 3 (8 graded)

Our calls on him: model 20–27 · Short week 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Freezing 2–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Adam Trautman prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%–…
2026 W4Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2026 W4Rec yds4.53.948% / 50%0under
2026 W4Rec0.5161% / 59%0under
2026 W3Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 13%0under
2026 W3Rec yds5.55.149% / 50%0under
2026 W3Rec0.5164% / 63%0under
2026 W2Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 12%0under
2026 W2Rec yds8.58.149% / 50%0under
2026 W2Rec1.5139% / 36%0under
2026 W1Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 10%0under
2026 W1Rec yds5.59.261% / 48%10over
2026 W1Rec0.5176% / 62%2over
2025 W18Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 13%0under
2025 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 11%0under
2025 W17Long rec7.56.648% / 49%13over
2025 W17Rec yds8.58.148% / 49%24over
2025 W17Rec1.5135% / 36%2over
2025 W16Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 11%0under
2025 W16Long rec3.55.556% / 49%8over
2025 W16Rec yds3.56.357% / 49%14over
2025 W16Rec0.5166% / 58%2over
2025 W15Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 11%0under
2025 W15Long rec7.55.644% / 48%0under
2025 W15Rec yds8.56.446% / 49%0under
2025 W15Rec1.5136% / 37%0under
2025 W14Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 13%0under
2025 W14Long rec5.55.851% / 51%12over
2025 W14Rec yds6.56.450% / 49%17over
2025 W14Rec0.5167% / 66%2over
2025 W13Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2025 W13Long rec5.53.545% / 50%22over
2025 W13Rec yds5.53.946% / 51%47over
2025 W13Rec0.5159% / 63%3over
2025 W11Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2025 W10Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 18%0under
2025 W10Long rec6.54.844% / 49%2under
2025 W10Rec yds7.55.243% / 50%2under
2025 W10Rec1.5129% / 36%1under
2025 W9Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%0under
2025 W8Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 12%0under
2025 W7Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 9%0under
2025 W7Long rec4.55.653% / 51%0under
2025 W7Rec yds4.56.154% / 51%0under
2025 W7Rec0.5167% / 60%0under
2025 W6Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 12%0under
2025 W6Rec yds7.58.452% / 50%0under
2025 W5Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 11%0under
2025 W5Long rec5.57.056% / 48%11over
2025 W5Rec yds5.58.759% / 50%11over
2025 W4Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 17%0under
2025 W3Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 16%0under
2025 W2Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 14%1over
2025 W1Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 11%0under
2024 W18Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 14%0under
2024 W17Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 17%0under
2024 W16Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 14%0under
2024 W16Rec yds5.56.553% / 49%5under
2024 W15Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 18%1over
2024 W15Rec yds6.55.047% / 50%20over
2024 W13Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 17%0under
2024 W13Rec yds7.55.847% / 49%0under
2024 W13Rec1.5128% / 37%0under
2024 W12Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 14%0under
2024 W12Rec yds8.55.644% / 50%3under
2024 W11Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 13%0under
2024 W11Rec yds8.58.149% / 51%0under
2024 W11Rec1.5133% / 35%0under
2024 W10Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 10%0under
2024 W10Rec yds9.56.542% / 51%34over
2024 W9Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 13%0under
2024 W9Rec yds7.57.751% / 52%4under
2024 W9Rec1.5137% / 34%1under
2024 W8Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 12%1over
2024 W7Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2024 W6Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 15%0under
2024 W6Rec yds8.53.736% / 51%0under
2024 W5Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2024 W4Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 7%0under
2024 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 8%0under
2024 W2Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W1Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 13%0under
2024 W1Rec yds8.51259% / 50%0under
2023 W18Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 24%0under
2023 W17Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 18%0under
2023 W17Rec yds5.51366% / 49%9over
2023 W17Rec yds8.51359% / 50%9over
2023 W17Rec0.5178% / 59%1over
2023 W17Rec0.5178% / 59%1over
2023 W16Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 15%0under
2023 W16Rec yds9.51356% / 51%0under
2023 W16Rec yds9.51356% / 50%0under
2023 W16Rec1.5149% / 42%0under
2023 W16Rec1.5149% / 42%0under
2023 W15Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 17%0under
2023 W15Rec yds7.51262% / 51%24over
2023 W15Rec yds6.51264% / 51%24over
2023 W15Rec1.5250% / 36%1under
2023 W15Rec1.5250% / 39%1under
2023 W14Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 18%1over
2023 W14Rec yds8.51259% / 50%19over
2023 W14Rec yds8.51259% / 51%19over
2023 W14Rec1.5252% / 38%2over
2023 W14Rec1.5252% / 39%2over
2023 W13Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 18%0under
2023 W13Rec yds10.51356% / 49%6under
2023 W13Rec yds10.51356% / 50%6under
2023 W12Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 15%1over
2023 W12Rec yds11.51047% / 50%8under
2023 W12Rec yds10.51049% / 50%8under
2023 W12Rec1.5147% / 49%1under
2023 W12Rec1.5147% / 48%1under
2023 W11Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 18%0under
2023 W11Rec yds12.51352% / 49%33over
2023 W11Rec yds12.51352% / 49%33over
2023 W11Rec1.5253% / 55%2over
2023 W11Rec1.5253% / 54%2over
2023 W10Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 16%0under
2023 W10Rec yds10.51356% / 50%15over
2023 W10Rec yds10.51356% / 49%15over
2023 W10Rec1.5253% / 48%2over
2023 W10Rec1.5253% / 48%2over
2023 W8Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 13%0under
2023 W8Rec yds12.51555% / 49%0under
2023 W8Rec yds12.51555% / 49%0under
2023 W8Rec1.5259% / 58%0under
2023 W8Rec1.5259% / 53%0under
2023 W7Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 16%0under
2023 W7Rec yds15.51856% / 50%5under
2023 W7Rec1.5265% / 60%1under
2023 W6Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 16%0under
2023 W5Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 17%1over
2023 W4Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 16%0under
2023 W4Rec yds16.51446% / 50%0under
2023 W4Rec1.5256% / 61%0under
2023 W3Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 17%0under
2023 W3Rec yds20.51642% / 50%0under
2023 W3Rec2.5246% / 43%0under
2023 W2Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 20%0under
2023 W2Rec yds23.52959% / 51%0under
2023 W2Rec yds23.52959% / 49%0under
2023 W2Rec2.5472% / 53%0under
2023 W2Rec2.5472% / 50%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 14%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 7.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W15 Under 6.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Over 7.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W10 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W6 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W1 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W13 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 12.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Over 12.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W2 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology