WR · NYJ · 98 lines since 2023
Adonai Mitchell Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Adonai Mitchell, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 26%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 14, under 12 (26 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 15 (23 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 33 (35 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 4 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: model 22–28 · Freezing 2–0 · Short week 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 3–3
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 57 | 72% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 79% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 32 | 40% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 17 | 45% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 17 | 43% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 31 | 36% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 44% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 31 | 40% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 50% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 31 | 32% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 18.5 | 15 | 41% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 21 | 31% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 18.5 | 11 | 32% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 15 | 22% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.4 | 46% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 39% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 19 | 46% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 18 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 49% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 19 | 33% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 8.5 | 12 | 58% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 15 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 17 | 66% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 23 | 64% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 44% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 44% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 28 | 37% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 21 | 65% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 20 | 64% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 19 | 50% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 15 | 58% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 27 | 64% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 25 | 42% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 35.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 59% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 40.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 9.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 18.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 11.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology