RB · NO · 191 lines since 2023

Alvin Kamara Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Alvin Kamara, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 37% — we make it 40%
Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 8.4 (P(over) 50%)
Line 15.5 rec yds — we project 14 (P(over) 45%)
Line 3.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 29%)
Line 10.5 rush attempts — we project 10 (P(over) 49%)
Line 50.5 rush + rec yds — we project 50 (P(over) 50%)
Line 31.5 rush yds — we project 34 (P(over) 54%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 18, under 23 (41 graded)
Receiving yards over 22, under 19 (41 graded)
Receptions over 22, under 19 (41 graded)
Anytime TD over 11, under 30 (41 graded)
Rush attempts over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
Longest reception over 5, under 5 (10 graded)

Our calls on him: model 50–61 · Missed tackles 18–8 · Pre-snap motion 8–8 · Dome team outdoors 6–4 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–2 · Starters out on defense 1–5 · Middle of the field 3–2 · Screens 0–1 · Short week 2–1 · Red-zone defense 1–1 · Blitz-heavy defense 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Alvin Kamara prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 37%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	8.5	8.4	50% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	15.5	14	45% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	3.5	2	29% / 44%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	10.5	10	49% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	50.5	50	50% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	31.5	34	54% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 40%	1	over
2026 W4	Rec yds	16.5	12	37% / 50%	35	over
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 59%	5	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	35.5	19	22% / 50%	23	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 34%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	12.5	14	54% / 50%	5	under
2026 W3	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 51%	1	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	22.5	21	47% / 50%	36	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 21%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	12.5	11	45% / 51%	7	under
2026 W2	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 40%	5	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	17.5	25	64% / 50%	15	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 37%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	9.5	11	56% / 48%	2	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	13.5	19	63% / 51%	4	under
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 53%	2	under
2025 W12	Rush att	15.5	16	54% / 47%	3	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	55.5	60	55% / 50%	11	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 33%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	8.5	8.8	52% / 51%	26	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	14.5	16	53% / 50%	32	over
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	3	61% / 47%	3	over
2025 W10	Rush att	10.5	15	76% / 50%	22	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	38.5	45	60% / 50%	83	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 34%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	9.5	7.4	37% / 48%	3	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	15.5	12	42% / 49%	3	under
2025 W9	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 52%	1	under
2025 W9	Rush att	11.5	14	65% / 49%	6	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	39.5	39	49% / 50%	14	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 42%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	10.5	9.9	47% / 53%	15	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	21.5	18	40% / 51%	24	over
2025 W8	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 51%	2	under
2025 W8	Rush att	13.5	13	49% / 47%	6	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	44.5	47	53% / 50%	21	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 37%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	11.5	9.3	38% / 49%	2	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	20.5	16	40% / 51%	1	under
2025 W7	Rec	3.5	3	37% / 46%	3	under
2025 W7	Rush att	11.5	15	67% / 50%	11	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	45.5	51	57% / 50%	28	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 39%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	10.5	9.5	45% / 51%	22	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	18.5	16	43% / 50%	45	over
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	3	34% / 42%	5	over
2025 W6	Rush att	10.5	14	74% / 49%	10	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	36.5	54	70% / 49%	31	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 50%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	10.5	9.7	46% / 49%	12	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	17.5	17	49% / 50%	28	over
2025 W5	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 56%	4	over
2025 W5	Rush att	13.5	16	63% / 52%	8	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	54.5	62	59% / 50%	27	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 44%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	10.5	8.3	37% / 52%	4	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	19.5	14	38% / 51%	2	under
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 45%	4	over
2025 W4	Rush att	13.5	14	56% / 53%	15	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	50.5	47	45% / 50%	70	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 47%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	12.5	9.9	34% / 48%	14	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	26.5	19	33% / 50%	14	under
2025 W3	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 57%	1	under
2025 W3	Rush att	14.5	15	53% / 50%	18	over
2025 W3	Rush yds	58.5	50	39% / 50%	42	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 52%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	11.5	8.8	37% / 51%	6	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	23.5	14	29% / 50%	21	under
2025 W2	Rec	3.5	2	28% / 52%	6	over
2025 W2	Rush att	12.5	12	46% / 53%	21	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	48.5	42	42% / 50%	99	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 53%	1	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	30.5	25	41% / 49%	12	under
2025 W1	Rec	4.5	4	41% / 47%	2	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	61.5	54	42% / 50%	45	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 48%	1	over
2024 W15	Rec yds	31.5	22	33% / 50%	58	over
2024 W15	Rec	4.5	4	37% / 46%	4	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	60.5	59	48% / 51%	12	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 65%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	37.5	30	39% / 50%	35	under
2024 W14	Rec	4.5	4	46% / 58%	5	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	84.5	87	52% / 51%	44	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	63% TD chance	63% / 62%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	39.5	30	37% / 49%	7	under
2024 W13	Rec	5.5	4	31% / 45%	4	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	65.5	85	68% / 51%	112	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 59%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	39.5	29	33% / 50%	22	under
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	4	45% / 58%	4	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	73.5	79	56% / 50%	67	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 58%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	40.5	37	45% / 51%	54	over
2024 W10	Rec	5.5	5	48% / 49%	5	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	70.5	80	59% / 50%	55	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	67% TD chance	67% / 64%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	31.5	34	53% / 50%	60	over
2024 W9	Rec	4.5	4	50% / 48%	6	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	73.5	100	72% / 51%	155	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 43%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	28.5	23	39% / 50%	55	over
2024 W8	Rec	4.5	4	43% / 47%	6	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	54.5	39	28% / 50%	67	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 52%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	35.5	27	35% / 52%	14	under
2024 W7	Rec	4.5	4	50% / 56%	6	over
2024 W7	Rush yds	67.5	55	35% / 50%	10	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 53%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	30.5	27	45% / 49%	24	under
2024 W6	Rec	4.5	4	45% / 50%	5	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	67.5	68	51% / 50%	40	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 55%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec yds	34.5	23	30% / 51%	40	over
2024 W5	Rec	4.5	4	38% / 55%	6	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	65.5	66	51% / 51%	26	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 49%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	29.5	20	31% / 50%	42	over
2024 W4	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 57%	7	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	64.5	67	52% / 51%	77	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 67%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	32.5	25	37% / 50%	40	over
2024 W3	Rec	4.5	3	31% / 49%	3	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	72.5	73	50% / 51%	87	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 45%	1	over
2024 W2	Rec yds	31.5	18	23% / 50%	65	over
2024 W2	Rec	4.5	3	28% / 56%	2	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	51.5	47	44% / 50%	115	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 48%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	29.5	17	26% / 48%	27	under
2024 W1	Rec	4.5	3	21% / 43%	5	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	51.5	44	40% / 49%	83	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 48%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	35.5	24	28% / 49%	4	under
2023 W17	Rec	4.5	4	43% / 52%	2	under
2023 W17	Rush yds	45.5	54	60% / 49%	45	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 49%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	36.5	28	37% / 50%	16	under
2023 W16	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 53%	5	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	54.5	59	56% / 50%	19	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 54%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	34.5	34	50% / 50%	44	over
2023 W15	Rec	4.5	5	60% / 51%	5	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	58.5	75	68% / 51%	66	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 59%	1	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	38.5	34	43% / 50%	-11	under
2023 W14	Rec	4.5	5	56% / 57%	3	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	64.5	74	61% / 50%	56	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 55%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	32.5	35	54% / 50%	58	over
2023 W13	Rec	4.5	5	63% / 52%	6	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	49.5	64	65% / 50%	51	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 51%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	35.5	28	37% / 49%	50	over
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 50%	4	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	48.5	63	67% / 50%	69	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 42%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	31.5	30	48% / 51%	33	over
2023 W10	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 46%	7	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	49.5	62	64% / 49%	42	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 51%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	37.5	33	43% / 51%	44	over
2023 W9	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 56%	4	under
2023 W9	Rush yds	57.5	58	51% / 49%	26	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 46%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	36.5	32	41% / 50%	51	over
2023 W8	Rec	5.5	5	48% / 45%	4	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	52.5	60	58% / 52%	59	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 38%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	31.5	26	40% / 49%	91	over
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	5	55% / 53%	12	over
2023 W7	Rush yds	49.5	57	58% / 52%	62	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 43%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	27.5	26	48% / 50%	36	over
2023 W6	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 46%	7	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	61.5	69	57% / 49%	68	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 44%	1	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	30.5	29	48% / 50%	17	under
2023 W5	Rec	4.5	6	72% / 51%	3	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	59.5	58	49% / 50%	80	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	–	– / 41%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	21.5	–	– / 50%	33	over
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	–	– / 58%	13	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	52.5	–	– / 50%	51	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 35.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 22.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 17.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 55.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 38.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 39.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 39.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 44.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 45.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 45.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 45.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 36.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Over 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 54.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 50.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology