Edgehalla

RB · JAX · 84 lines since 2023

Ameer Abdullah Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Ameer Abdullah, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 11%

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 8, under 5 (13 graded)
  • Receptions over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 6, under 40 (46 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
  • Longest reception over 1, under 0 (1 graded)

Our calls on him: model 13–24 · Light boxes 0–1 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Starters out on defense 0–2 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 2–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Ameer Abdullah prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 7%–…
2026 W4Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 9%0under
2026 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%0under
2026 W2Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2026 W1Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 11%0under
2025 W17Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 14%0under
2025 W16Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 15%0under
2025 W16Rec yds7.54.539% / 50%4under
2025 W16Rush yds10.55.635% / 50%0under
2025 W15Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 8%0under
2025 W14Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 7%0under
2025 W13Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 8%0under
2025 W12Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 7%0under
2025 W10Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 9%0under
2025 W9Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 14%0under
2025 W8Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 23%0under
2025 W8Long rec0.51.955% / 44%3over
2025 W8Rec yds0.52.155% / 44%3over
2025 W8Rec0.5156% / 48%1over
2025 W8Rush att3.5451% / 46%2under
2025 W8Rush yds10.51866% / 54%5under
2025 W7Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 8%0under
2025 W5Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 7%1over
2024 W17Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 25%0under
2024 W17Rec yds17.51338% / 50%32over
2024 W17Rec2.5242% / 53%3over
2024 W17Rush yds30.51623% / 51%115over
2024 W16Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 29%1over
2024 W16Rec yds16.59.732% / 52%47over
2024 W16Rec2.5232% / 45%5over
2024 W16Rush yds17.51340% / 48%38over
2024 W15Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 13%1over
2024 W14Any TD–36% TD chance36% / 35%0under
2024 W14Rec yds16.51136% / 50%-3under
2024 W14Rec2.5242% / 51%1under
2024 W14Rush yds23.52451% / 50%1under
2024 W13Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 31%0under
2024 W13Rec yds22.58.315% / 50%14under
2024 W13Rec3.5220% / 48%2under
2024 W13Rush yds26.51629% / 52%39over
2024 W12Any TD–37% TD chance37% / 38%1over
2024 W12Rec yds17.59.126% / 50%37over
2024 W12Rec2.5235% / 56%5over
2024 W12Rush yds35.53346% / 50%28under
2024 W11Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 13%1over
2024 W9Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 12%0under
2024 W8Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 11%0under
2024 W7Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 14%0under
2024 W7Rec yds7.57.751% / 50%0under
2024 W7Rec1.5252% / 42%0under
2024 W6Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 22%0under
2024 W6Rec yds10.5632% / 51%14over
2024 W6Rush yds18.58.424% / 50%24over
2024 W5Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 15%1over
2024 W5Rec yds5.55.349% / 50%9over
2024 W5Rush yds9.58.246% / 49%42over
2024 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%–void
2024 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 9%0under
2024 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W1Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%–void
2023 W18Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 15%0under
2023 W17Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 21%0under
2023 W17Rec yds7.55.242% / 52%18over
2023 W17Rec1.5139% / 43%1under
2023 W17Rush yds12.51248% / 50%4under
2023 W16Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 17%0under
2023 W16Rec yds10.54.226% / 48%1under
2023 W16Rush yds15.55.222% / 49%11under
2023 W15Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 29%0under
2023 W15Rec yds11.53.525% / 53%13over
2023 W15Rec1.5130% / 58%2over
2023 W14Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W12Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W11Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2023 W10Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%0under
2023 W9Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 10%0under
2023 W8Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W7Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 11%0under
2023 W6Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 11%0under
2023 W5Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2023 W4Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 12%0under
2023 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 11%0under
2023 W2Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 11%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 10.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Over 3.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 10.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W17 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W14 Over 23.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W14 Under 23.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W13 Under 26.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W6 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Under 15.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology