Edgehalla

WR · DET · 196 lines since 2023

Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Amon-Ra St. Brown, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 59% — we make it 48%
  • Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 30 (P(over) 69%)
  • Line 80.5 rec yds — we project 86 (P(over) 54%)
  • Line 7.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 38%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 27, under 27 (54 graded)
  • Receptions over 28, under 25 (53 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 40, under 27 (67 graded)
  • Longest reception over 9, under 8 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 11–6 · Pre-snap motion 14–8 · model 26–36 · Middle of the field 10–7 · Short week 3–3 · Explosive plays 6–4 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Missed tackles 6–8 · Red-zone defense 2–2 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Play action 4–1 · Freezing 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Amon-Ra St. Brown prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–48% TD chance48% / 59%–…
2026 W5Long rec23.53069% / 51%–…
2026 W5Rec yds80.58654% / 50%–…
2026 W5Rec7.5638% / 46%–…
2026 W4Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 57%0under
2026 W4Rec yds78.58253% / 49%75under
2026 W4Rec6.5649% / 56%8over
2026 W3Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 56%1over
2026 W3Rec yds76.58758% / 50%19under
2026 W3Rec7.5740% / 45%4under
2026 W2Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 50%1over
2026 W2Rec yds80.57546% / 50%142over
2026 W2Rec7.5637% / 48%9over
2026 W1Any TD–61% TD chance61% / 52%1over
2026 W1Rec yds77.511069% / 50%67under
2026 W1Rec6.5867% / 50%10over
2025 W18Any TD–43% TD chance43% / 47%0under
2025 W18Long rec22.52763% / 49%30over
2025 W18Rec yds67.57455% / 51%139over
2025 W18Rec5.5656% / 55%11over
2025 W17Any TD–48% TD chance48% / 49%0under
2025 W17Long rec23.52658% / 50%23under
2025 W17Rec yds74.56845% / 50%68under
2025 W17Rec6.5535% / 49%8over
2025 W16Any TD–52% TD chance52% / 53%0under
2025 W16Long rec24.53270% / 50%24under
2025 W16Rec yds85.59857% / 51%54under
2025 W16Rec7.5743% / 49%4under
2025 W15Any TD–40% TD chance40% / 45%1over
2025 W15Long rec22.52865% / 50%52over
2025 W15Rec yds79.58151% / 52%164over
2025 W15Rec6.5750% / 56%13over
2025 W14Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 46%0under
2025 W14Long rec21.52970% / 51%37over
2025 W14Rec yds64.57859% / 50%92over
2025 W14Rec6.5642% / 46%6under
2025 W13Any TD–56% TD chance56% / 50%0under
2025 W13Long rec22.53072% / 51%0under
2025 W13Rec yds79.59864% / 49%0under
2025 W13Rec7.5856% / 46%0under
2025 W12Any TD–56% TD chance56% / 56%1over
2025 W12Long rec22.53275% / 52%30over
2025 W12Rec yds78.59662% / 50%149over
2025 W12Rec6.5755% / 55%9over
2025 W11Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 44%0under
2025 W11Long rec22.52560% / 51%34over
2025 W11Rec yds78.58152% / 50%42under
2025 W11Rec7.5851% / 46%2under
2025 W10Any TD–50% TD chance50% / 59%1over
2025 W10Long rec22.52867% / 51%16under
2025 W10Rec yds80.58452% / 50%58under
2025 W10Rec7.5742% / 46%5under
2025 W9Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 54%0under
2025 W9Long rec22.52765% / 53%19under
2025 W9Rec yds79.58050% / 51%97over
2025 W9Rec6.5752% / 55%9over
2025 W7Any TD–54% TD chance54% / 54%1over
2025 W7Long rec22.52867% / 51%27over
2025 W7Rec yds80.58453% / 51%86over
2025 W7Rec7.5744% / 47%6under
2025 W6Any TD–44% TD chance44% / 48%0under
2025 W6Long rec21.52664% / 52%12under
2025 W6Rec yds74.57651% / 51%45under
2025 W6Rec6.5754% / 52%9over
2025 W5Any TD–49% TD chance49% / 51%0under
2025 W5Long rec21.52869% / 50%26over
2025 W5Rec yds69.58159% / 50%100over
2025 W5Rec6.5750% / 49%8over
2025 W4Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 49%1over
2025 W4Long rec21.52765% / 52%25over
2025 W4Rec yds67.57153% / 50%70over
2025 W4Rec5.5655% / 56%7over
2025 W3Any TD–44% TD chance44% / 47%1over
2025 W3Long rec21.52666% / 51%20under
2025 W3Rec yds72.57754% / 50%77over
2025 W3Rec6.5753% / 51%7over
2025 W2Any TD–41% TD chance41% / 45%1over
2025 W2Long rec20.52564% / 52%34over
2025 W2Rec yds64.56550% / 51%115over
2025 W2Rec5.5652% / 54%9over
2025 W1Any TD–49% TD chance49% / 42%0under
2025 W1Long rec20.52873% / 51%19under
2025 W1Rec yds64.59170% / 50%45under
2025 W1Rec6.5867% / 45%4under
2024 W18Any TD–54% TD chance54% / 53%0under
2024 W18Rec yds82.58956% / 51%77under
2024 W18Rec6.5755% / 59%6under
2024 W17Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 50%1over
2024 W17Rec yds70.57554% / 49%60under
2024 W17Rec6.5647% / 48%8over
2024 W16Any TD–46% TD chance46% / 50%1over
2024 W16Rec yds72.58157% / 50%70under
2024 W16Rec6.5751% / 49%6under
2024 W15Any TD–37% TD chance37% / 51%1over
2024 W15Rec yds70.57454% / 50%193over
2024 W15Rec6.5643% / 44%14over
2024 W14Any TD–39% TD chance39% / 50%0under
2024 W14Rec yds71.57654% / 51%43under
2024 W14Rec6.5646% / 48%5under
2024 W13Any TD–39% TD chance39% / 53%0under
2024 W13Rec yds70.56948% / 48%73over
2024 W13Rec6.5639% / 46%5under
2024 W12Any TD–44% TD chance44% / 56%0under
2024 W12Rec yds74.58154% / 50%62under
2024 W12Rec6.5648% / 54%6under
2024 W11Any TD–47% TD chance47% / 51%1over
2024 W11Rec yds72.58459% / 50%161over
2024 W11Rec6.5751% / 49%11over
2024 W11Rush yds0.507% / 13%-4under
2024 W10Any TD–42% TD chance42% / 53%1over
2024 W10Rec yds69.57856% / 51%60under
2024 W10Rec6.5752% / 46%6under
2024 W9Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 48%1over
2024 W9Rec yds61.56552% / 50%56under
2024 W9Rec5.5652% / 54%7over
2024 W8Any TD–41% TD chance41% / 52%1over
2024 W8Rec yds73.57551% / 50%7under
2024 W8Rec6.5644% / 45%2under
2024 W7Any TD–35% TD chance35% / 44%1over
2024 W7Rec yds75.57448% / 51%112over
2024 W7Rec7.5635% / 43%8over
2024 W6Any TD–39% TD chance39% / 47%1over
2024 W6Rec yds78.57447% / 50%37under
2024 W6Rec6.5642% / 57%4under
2024 W4Any TD–36% TD chance36% / 43%1over
2024 W4Rec yds73.57047% / 50%45under
2024 W4Rec6.5641% / 52%6under
2024 W3Any TD–35% TD chance35% / 47%1over
2024 W3Rec yds76.57347% / 50%75under
2024 W3Rec6.5638% / 50%7over
2024 W2Any TD–42% TD chance42% / 51%0under
2024 W2Rec yds82.57847% / 50%119over
2024 W2Rec6.5639% / 57%11over
2024 W1Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 52%0under
2024 W1Rec yds83.59759% / 52%13under
2024 W1Rec7.5742% / 44%3under
2023 W18Any TD–43% TD chance43% / 44%1over
2023 W18Any TD–43% TD chance43% / 43%1over
2023 W17Any TD–37% TD chance37% / 42%1over
2023 W17Any TD–37% TD chance37% / 44%1over
2023 W17Rec yds81.57243% / 50%90over
2023 W17Rec6.5643% / 55%6under
2023 W16Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 42%1over
2023 W16Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 45%1over
2023 W16Rec yds77.57951% / 50%106over
2023 W16Rec6.5645% / 56%12over
2023 W15Any TD–43% TD chance43% / 45%1over
2023 W15Any TD–43% TD chance43% / 44%1over
2023 W15Rec yds74.58255% / 50%112over
2023 W15Rec6.5647% / 51%7over
2023 W14Any TD–36% TD chance36% / 43%0under
2023 W14Any TD–36% TD chance36% / 43%0under
2023 W14Rec yds74.57953% / 50%21under
2023 W14Rec6.5650% / 50%3under
2023 W13Any TD–41% TD chance41% / 45%1over
2023 W13Any TD–41% TD chance41% / 51%1over
2023 W13Rec yds84.58046% / 50%49under
2023 W13Rec7.5640% / 46%2under
2023 W12Any TD–46% TD chance46% / 51%0under
2023 W12Rec yds81.58049% / 50%95over
2023 W12Rec yds81.58049% / 50%95over
2023 W12Rec6.5646% / 55%9over
2023 W11Any TD–40% TD chance40% / 48%1over
2023 W11Any TD–40% TD chance40% / 56%1over
2023 W11Rec yds84.58954% / 50%77under
2023 W11Rec6.5650% / 57%8over
2023 W10Any TD–31% TD chance31% / 43%1over
2023 W10Any TD–31% TD chance31% / 40%1over
2023 W10Rec yds82.58149% / 50%156over
2023 W10Rec6.5752% / 56%8over
2023 W8Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 45%0under
2023 W8Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 50%0under
2023 W8Rec yds78.57244% / 50%108over
2023 W8Rec7.5634% / 45%6under
2023 W7Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 35%0under
2023 W7Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 37%0under
2023 W7Rec yds74.56945% / 48%102over
2023 W7Rec6.5752% / 50%13over
2023 W6Any TD–37% TD chance37% / 40%1over
2023 W6Rec yds71.56948% / 50%124over
2023 W6Rec5.5655% / 57%12over
2023 W4Any TD–33% TD chance33% / 42%1over
2023 W4Any TD–33% TD chance33% / 40%1over
2023 W4Rec yds73.58056% / 50%56under
2023 W4Rec6.5752% / 49%5under
2023 W3Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 41%0under
2023 W3Rec yds70.56747% / 49%102over
2023 W3Rec6.5535% / 44%9over
2023 W2Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 50%0under
2023 W2Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 43%0under
2023 W2Rec yds76.56137% / 51%102over
2023 W2Rec6.5533% / 51%6under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 43%1over
2023 W1Any TD––– / 48%1over
2023 W1Rec yds75.5–– / 50%71under
2023 W1Rec6.5–– / 55%6under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Under 78.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Over 78.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Under 76.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W3 Over 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Under 76.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 80.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Over 80.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 80.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Over 77.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 67.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 74.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 85.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 85.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 85.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 79.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 79.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Over 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Over 79.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 79.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 79.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Over 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Over 78.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Over 78.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 78.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 78.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 78.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 78.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 80.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 80.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 80.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 79.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology