RB · LV · 125 lines since 2023
Ashton Jeanty Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ashton Jeanty, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 49% — we make it 49%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 11 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 23.5 rec yds — we project 20 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 13.5 rush attempts — we project 15 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 76.5 rush + rec yds — we project 75 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 47.5 rush yds — we project 52 (P(over) 56%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Receiving yards over 10, under 11 (21 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 10 (21 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 13 (21 graded)
- Rush attempts over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 48–34 · Missed tackles 7–3 · Pre-snap motion 6–6 · Red-zone defense 1–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 5–2 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 3–2 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 20 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 13.5 | 15 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 76.5 | 75 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 52 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 43% / 49% | 68 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 56 | 46% / 49% | 58 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 54 | 34% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 17 | 31% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 50 | 34% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 61% TD chance | 61% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 23 | 61% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 72 | 62% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.8 | 30% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 15 | 26% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 17.5 | 17 | 50% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 55 | 40% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 38% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 18.5 | 17 | 41% / 47% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 74.5 | 56 | 31% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.3 | 28% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 29% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 14.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 31 | 28% / 50% | 128 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.7 | 37% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 36% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 16.5 | 18 | 57% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 43 | 36% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.6 | 37% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 43% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 15.5 | 15 | 45% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 41 | 33% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.7 | 27% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 16 | 31% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 15.5 | 14 | 39% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 40 | 28% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.6 | 40% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 42% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 16.5 | 15 | 43% / 52% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 51 | 42% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.4 | 45% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 43% / 53% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 17.5 | 16 | 41% / 47% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 60 | 42% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.4 | 37% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 39% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 14.5 | 14 | 47% / 53% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 45 | 37% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.1 | 43% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 42% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 15.5 | 14 | 43% / 52% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 54 | 40% / 49% | 42 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.6 | 33% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 12 | 33% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 15.5 | 15 | 45% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 48 | 36% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.6 | 46% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 18.5 | 16 | 37% / 47% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 71 | 46% / 52% | 75 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.6 | 35% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 9.0 | 29% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 16.5 | 14 | 37% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 57 | 38% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.2 | 44% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.1 | 40% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 17.5 | 15 | 34% / 47% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 53 | 33% / 52% | 138 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.3 | 43% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 15.5 | 14 | 42% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 45 | 28% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.9 | 37% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.7 | 34% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 16.5 | 12 | 20% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 35 | 13% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 10.5 | – | – / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 16.5 | – | – / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 69.5 | – | – / 50% | 38 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 68.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 68.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 63.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 74.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 45.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 16.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 52.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 52.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 52.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 56.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 57.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology