TE · ATL · 159 lines since 2023
Austin Hooper Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Austin Hooper, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 7%
- Line 6.5 rec yds — we project 6.3 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 0.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 67%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 26, under 21 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 19 (42 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 48 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 5–9 · model 26–30 · Short week 0–2 · Freezing 4–1 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Pre-snap motion 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 3–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.3 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 67% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 7.3 | 52% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.9 | 45% / 45% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 13 | 52% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 50% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 6.5 | 7.0 | 52% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.4 | 52% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 70% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 5.5 | 8.2 | 59% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 9.9 | 61% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 73% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10 | 54% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10 | 56% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 14 | 57% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.2 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.9 | 55% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 6.5 | 7.6 | 54% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 9.4 | 57% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 74% / 65% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.9 | 54% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 57% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10 | 56% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 13 | 58% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 10.0 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 14 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 15 | 69% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 27 | 70% / 41% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 77% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 22 | 27% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 19 | 38% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 41% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 43% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 40% / 49% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 46% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.5 | 41% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 47% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 10 | 42% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 9.4 | 45% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.1 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.7 | 51% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.4 | 41% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 9.9 | 47% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.9 | 43% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 12 | 35% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 27% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 10.0 | 30% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 9.3 | 27% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 27% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.6 | 36% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 3.0 | 28% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.3 | 37% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 4.7 | 35% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 4.8 | 40% / 46% | 18 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 65% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.0 | 42% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.7 | 37% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 5.3 | 28% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 40% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 15 | 34% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | – | – / 47% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 40% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 7.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 11.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 11.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 7.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 5.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 9.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 9.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 8.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 11.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 12.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology