RB · ARI · 101 lines since 2023
Bam Knight Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Bam Knight, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 19%
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 19%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 5, under 13 (18 graded)
- Receiving yards over 8, under 5 (13 graded)
- Receptions over 9, under 5 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 16 (26 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 8 (14 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 21–19 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–3 · Missed tackles 3–1 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Dome team outdoors 0–2 · Starters out on defense 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 7% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 5% | – | void |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 3% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.1 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 40% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 40% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 23 | 32% / 49% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 23 | 34% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.4 | 40% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 45% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 42% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 36% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 36% / 45% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 33 | 45% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 33 | 40% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.6 | 35% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 46% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 56% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 10.5 | 8 | 31% / 52% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 10.5 | 8 | 31% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 32% / 52% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 32% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.3 | 49% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.3 | 49% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 56% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 12.5 | 9 | 25% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 12.5 | 9 | 25% / 47% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 33 | 36% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 33 | 39% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.1 | 45% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 26 | 28% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 26 | 27% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.4 | 40% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.7 | 38% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.7 | 41% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 8.5 | 9 | 50% / 53% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 28 | 49% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 28 | 51% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.3 | 45% / 53% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.4 | 42% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 12.5 | 7 | 10% / 46% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 11.5 | 7 | 15% / 55% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 28 | 18% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 28 | 20% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 6.5 | 3.0 | 35% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.3 | 36% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 10.5 | 5 | 7% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 10.5 | 5 | 7% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 15 | 15% / 54% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 15 | 14% / 49% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 5.5 | 0 | 26% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0 | 24% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 14% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 9.5 | 2 | 0% / 54% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 5.8 | 2% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 5.8 | 3% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | – | void |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 31.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 31.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 31.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 38.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 38.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 42.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 42.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 8.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 27.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 51.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 51.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 9.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology