RB · ATL · 262 lines since 2023
Bijan Robinson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Bijan Robinson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 70% — we make it 62%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 27.5 rec yds — we project 25 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 18.5 rush attempts — we project 18 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 117.5 rush + rec yds — we project 130 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 86.5 rush yds — we project 101 (P(over) 62%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 31, under 24 (55 graded)
- Receiving yards over 28, under 27 (55 graded)
- Receptions over 28, under 27 (55 graded)
- Anytime TD over 29, under 26 (55 graded)
- Rush attempts over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
- Rush + rec yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 18–18 · model 75–60 · Starters out on defense 9–6 · Pre-snap motion 11–15 · Explosive plays 0–3 · Short week 0–3 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–3 · Dome team outdoors 8–8 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Light boxes 2–2 · Red-zone defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 70% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 25 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 117.5 | 130 | 59% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 86.5 | 101 | 62% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 69% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 26 | 34% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 90.5 | 93 | 52% / 50% | 145 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 25 | 29% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 33% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 78.5 | 79 | 50% / 50% | 194 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 28 | 28% / 52% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 83.5 | 86 | 52% / 50% | 72 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 23 | 32% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 88 | 66% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 32 | 39% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 18.5 | 19 | 51% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush+rec yds | 128.5 | 137 | 55% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 82.5 | 101 | 64% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 14 | 38% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 29 | 29% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 74.5 | 73 | 49% / 50% | 195 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 61% TD chance | 61% / 68% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 33 | 44% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 90.5 | 102 | 58% / 51% | 76 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 37% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 27 | 30% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 74.5 | 73 | 48% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 45% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 29 | 35% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 71 | 56% / 49% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 47% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 28 | 44% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 53% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 79.5 | 78 | 48% / 50% | 142 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 42% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 32% / 49% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 80.5 | 76 | 45% / 50% | 70 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 36% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 80 | 54% / 51% | 104 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 44% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 29 | 31% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 16.5 | 13 | 29% / 45% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 60 | 43% / 51% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 43% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 39% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 16.5 | 13 | 30% / 45% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 60 | 47% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 67% TD chance | 67% / 71% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 48% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 34 | 37% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 17.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 91.5 | 103 | 58% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 47% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 38% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 16.5 | 16 | 44% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 77.5 | 83 | 55% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 29 | 44% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 15.5 | 15 | 45% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 72.5 | 72 | 49% / 50% | 170 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 19 | 37% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 17.5 | 16 | 44% / 48% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 79.5 | 79 | 49% / 50% | 75 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 69% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 43% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 82.5 | 92 | 58% / 50% | 72 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 46% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 43% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 68 | 51% / 50% | 143 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 65% TD chance | 65% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 16.5 | 19 | 66% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 95 | 66% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 65% TD chance | 65% / 76% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 21 | 54% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 100.5 | 103 | 52% / 50% | 170 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 16 | 42% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 86.5 | 75 | 41% / 49% | 90 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 68% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 45% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 88.5 | 94 | 55% / 49% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 68% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 40% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 85.5 | 82 | 48% / 49% | 125 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 35% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 64 | 51% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 22 | 38% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 69 | 43% / 51% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 36% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 68 | 55% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 25 | 47% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 79 | 56% / 50% | 116 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 22 | 46% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 81 | 59% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 47% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 67 | 53% / 50% | 63 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 40% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 77 | 64% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 72 | 55% / 52% | 95 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 23 | 39% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 64 | 53% / 49% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 40% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 61 | 37% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 22 | 37% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 65 | 42% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 22 | 35% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 59 | 39% / 51% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 28 | 51% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 64 | 49% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 40% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 51 | 38% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 18 | 38% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 48 | 50% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 41% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 60% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 59 | 48% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 42% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 50 | 34% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 38% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 61 | 41% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 12 | 38% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 60 | 50% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 40% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 56 | 49% / 52% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 42% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 63 | 56% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 41% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 58 | 48% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 15 | 23% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 31% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 50 | 50% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 14 | 24% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 53 | 48% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 16 | 36% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 65 | 47% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 45% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 80.5 | 69 | 40% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 43% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 55 | 37% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 56% / 52% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 62 | 42% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 30 | 70% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 5 | 88% / 61% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 50 | 40% / 50% | 124 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | – | – / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 71.5 | – | – / 50% | 56 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 88.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 90.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 90.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 90.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 78.5 rush yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 78.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 78.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 78.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 83.5 rush yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 83.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 83.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 71.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 71.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 82.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 82.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 90.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 90.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 74.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 74.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 74.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 74.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 64.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 64.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 79.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 79.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 79.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 80.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 80.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 80.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology