WR · GB · 40 lines since 2023
Bo Melton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Bo Melton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 29 (30 graded)
Our calls on him: Freezing 1–0 · Short week 1–0 · model 5–2 · Starters out on defense 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.2 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 15 | 30% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 21 | 56% / 48% | 105 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | – | – / 3% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2024 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology