QB · DEN · 210 lines since 2023
Bo Nix Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Bo Nix, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 15%
- Line 33.5 pass attempts — we project 32 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 21.5 completions — we project 21 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 221.5 pass yds — we project 216 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 4.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 14.5 rush yds — we project 14 (P(over) 50%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 21, under 17 (38 graded)
- Passing TDs over 18, under 20 (38 graded)
- Rushing yards over 18, under 20 (38 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 28 (38 graded)
- Pass attempts over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
- Completions over 11, under 6 (17 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 1–3 · model 30–34 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–6 · Low total (40.5 or less) 7–11 · Man coverage 5–2 · Short week 3–1 · Starters out on defense 8–0 · Freezing 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Play action 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 33.5 | 32 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 46% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 216 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 14 | 50% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 236 | 55% / 50% | 214 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 14 | 42% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 213.5 | 219 | 53% / 49% | 186 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 229 | 53% / 50% | 288 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 201 | 37% / 51% | 131 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 17 | 46% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 47% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 47% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 237 | 57% / 52% | 141 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 20 | 59% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 46% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 38% / 46% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 241 | 54% / 50% | 182 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 18 | 59% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 36.5 | 36 | 46% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 22.5 | 23 | 55% / 52% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 257 | 58% / 50% | 352 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 16 | 46% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 35.5 | 34 | 43% / 49% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 43% / 53% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 213 | 45% / 50% | 302 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 13 | 44% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 53% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 45% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 234 | 52% / 51% | 212 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 18 | 56% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 52% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 47% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 239 | 57% / 50% | 321 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 19 | 54% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 34.5 | 33 | 41% / 48% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 45% / 52% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 209 | 46% / 50% | 295 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 15 | 31% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 53% / 48% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 249 | 62% / 50% | 150 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 22 | 54% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 34 | 56% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 19.5 | 22 | 65% / 54% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 208.5 | 208 | 50% / 50% | 173 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 53% / 47% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 52% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 273 | 65% / 51% | 247 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 24 | 50% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 32.5 | 34 | 56% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 54% / 48% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 235 | 57% / 49% | 279 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 51% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 47% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 248 | 60% / 50% | 174 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 53% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 52% / 48% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 56% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 218 | 52% / 50% | 242 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 17 | 39% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 55% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 243 | 59% / 50% | 326 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 50% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 22 | 52% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 54% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 21.5 | 23 | 59% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 228 | 53% / 50% | 153 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 16 | 40% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 51% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 229 | 50% / 50% | 206 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 51% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 52% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 239 | 61% / 50% | 176 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 237 | 56% / 50% | 321 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 244 | 54% / 50% | 219 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 17 | 40% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 211 | 45% / 50% | 263 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 17 | 35% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 236 | 50% / 51% | 130 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 217 | 45% / 52% | 294 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 21 | 48% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 224 | 52% / 52% | 273 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 23 | 53% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 232 | 58% / 51% | 307 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 64% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 201.5 | 186 | 40% / 49% | 215 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 20 | 35% / 50% | -5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 211 | 47% / 51% | 223 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 20 | 38% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 201.5 | 221 | 59% / 50% | 284 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 38 | 63% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 194.5 | 193 | 49% / 50% | 164 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 24 | 43% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 187.5 | 169 | 40% / 50% | 216 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 16 | 39% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 64% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 185.5 | 187 | 51% / 50% | 206 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 20 | 44% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 185.5 | 163 | 38% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 19 | 38% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 60% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 187.5 | 190 | 51% / 50% | 216 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 16 | 39% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 174.5 | 174 | 50% / 50% | 246 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 14 | 28% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 198.5 | – | – / 51% | 138 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 20.5 | – | – / 50% | 35 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 222.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 218.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 218.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 218.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 232.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 232.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 232.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 240.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 222.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 228.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 225.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 34.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 218.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 221.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 221.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 208.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 34.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 34.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 237.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 237.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 237.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 221.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 221.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology