RB · NYJ · 84 lines since 2023
Braelon Allen Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Braelon Allen, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 49% — we make it 49%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 5.4 (P(over) 34%)
- Line 13.5 rec yds — we project 6.7 (P(over) 31%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 23%)
- Line 17.5 rush attempts — we project 15 (P(over) 35%)
- Line 89.5 rush + rec yds — we project 64 (P(over) 29%)
- Line 71.5 rush yds — we project 55 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 8, under 14 (22 graded)
- Receiving yards over 5, under 9 (14 graded)
- Receptions over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 21 (25 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 5–4 · model 18–14 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–1 · Short week 1–1 · Starters out on defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 5.4 | 34% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 6.7 | 31% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 17.5 | 15 | 35% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 89.5 | 64 | 29% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 55 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.9 | 40% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 55 | 49% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 9.3 | 25% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 2.5 | 2.6 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 2.8 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 17 | 39% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 15 | 45% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 13 | 36% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 3.5 | 5.1 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 6.2 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 50% / 55% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 20 | 33% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 12 | 55% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 37 | 62% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 5.3 | 25% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 41 | 32% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 1.7 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 25 | 50% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.6 | 41% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 54% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 23 | 52% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 2.0 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 22 | 49% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 3.2 | 43% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 23 | 55% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 46% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 23 | 55% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.2 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 24 | 32% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 5.7 | 35% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 23 | 33% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 7.8 | 39% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 35% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.8 | 45% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 22 | 46% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 11.5 | – | – / 50% | 8 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 69.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 18.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 28.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 21.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 22.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 34.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 34.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 32.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 24.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology