TE · JAX · 120 lines since 2023
Brenton Strange Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Brenton Strange, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 27%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 33.5 rec yds — we project 33 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 13, under 15 (28 graded)
- Receptions over 12, under 15 (27 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 40 (47 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 4 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 1–2 · Pre-snap motion 3–0 · model 23–25 · Starters out on defense 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Middle of the field 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 56% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 33 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 43% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 46% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 27 | 44% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 53% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 48% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 40% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 55% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 33 | 45% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 43% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 26 | 33% / 51% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 45% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 27 | 34% / 52% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 27 | 34% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 28 | 36% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 46% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 41% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 31 | 44% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 29 | 44% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 50% / 52% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 24 | 43% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 45% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 27 | 35% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 57% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 18 | 35% / 51% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 25% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 17 | 29% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 18 | 17% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 25% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 20 | 40% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 40% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.1 | 52% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.4 | 41% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.9 | 51% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 9.5 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 28% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 15 | 34% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 17 | 34% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | – | void |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | – | void |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 35.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 31.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 38.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 28.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 41.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 12.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology