TE · HOU · 31 lines since 2023
Brevin Jordan Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Brevin Jordan, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 4% — we make it 3%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 14 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 3–5 · Dome team outdoors 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.4 | 43% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 26% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.0 | 47% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 9.8 | 23% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 13 | 32% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | – | void |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology