RB · ATL · 265 lines since 2023

Brian Robinson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Brian Robinson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 32%
Line 8.5 rush attempts — we project 8 (P(over) 48%)
Line 35.5 rush yds — we project 35 (P(over) 50%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 40, under 36 (76 graded)
Receiving yards over 26, under 31 (57 graded)
Receptions over 23, under 25 (48 graded)
Anytime TD over 29, under 39 (68 graded)
Rush attempts over 2, under 7 (9 graded)
Longest reception over 0, under 4 (4 graded)

Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 4–1 · model 49–41 · Short week 2–3 · Missed tackles 9–15 · Big favourite (6.5+) 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 4–5 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–0 · Red-zone defense 1–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Brian Robinson prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 29%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	8.5	8	48% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	35.5	35	50% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 22%	1	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	30.5	30	50% / 49%	62	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 20%	1	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	24.5	29	58% / 50%	50	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 21%	0	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	25.5	24	47% / 51%	51	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 17%	0	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	19.5	25	61% / 50%	31	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 13%	0	under
2025 W18	Rush att	4.5	5	53% / 48%	2	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	15.5	18	55% / 49%	9	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 21%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	0.5	0	33% / 40%	6	over
2025 W17	Rec	0.5	0	34% / 43%	1	over
2025 W17	Rush att	5.5	5	43% / 52%	4	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	22.5	22	49% / 50%	22	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 22%	0	under
2025 W16	Rush att	5.5	5	48% / 53%	5	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	22.5	22	49% / 50%	20	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 28%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	1.5	0	30% / 51%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	1.5	0	30% / 50%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec	0.5	0	34% / 57%	0	under
2025 W15	Rush att	8.5	5	17% / 46%	9	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	29.5	25	42% / 50%	21	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 15%	0	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	23.5	19	41% / 51%	26	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 22%	0	under
2025 W12	Rush att	6.5	5	31% / 48%	7	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	27.5	24	42% / 50%	40	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 19%	0	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	21.5	19	45% / 51%	24	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 10%	1	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	13.5	14	52% / 50%	41	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 13%	1	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	15.5	15	49% / 51%	53	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 10%	0	under
2025 W8	Rush att	4.5	4	42% / 52%	0	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	14.5	13	47% / 51%	0	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 14%	0	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	12.5	15	56% / 50%	36	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 17%	0	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	15.5	16	52% / 49%	0	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 14%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	0.5	0	41% / 47%	0	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	0.5	0	41% / 46%	0	under
2025 W5	Rec	0.5	0	43% / 52%	0	under
2025 W5	Rush att	5.5	5	42% / 45%	5	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	20.5	15	37% / 51%	12	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 18%	0	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	20.5	21	50% / 50%	21	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 19%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	3.5	2.7	47% / 48%	0	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	2.5	3.0	52% / 51%	0	under
2025 W3	Rec	0.5	1	62% / 61%	0	under
2025 W3	Rush att	6.5	6	39% / 45%	2	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	21.5	21	48% / 50%	22	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 20%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	3.5	1.3	42% / 49%	-1	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	2.5	1.4	46% / 51%	-1	under
2025 W2	Rec	0.5	1	55% / 57%	1	over
2025 W2	Rush att	7.5	5	24% / 51%	6	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	29.5	19	29% / 50%	20	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 17%	0	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 49%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec yds	7.5	8.8	54% / 50%	6	under
2024 W18	Rec	1.5	1	47% / 42%	1	under
2024 W18	Rush yds	49.5	55	57% / 51%	10	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 55%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	12.5	9.2	41% / 50%	9	under
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	1	23% / 39%	2	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	65.5	48	30% / 50%	60	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 49%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	11.5	6.9	36% / 50%	17	over
2024 W16	Rec	1.5	1	43% / 60%	2	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	56.5	40	31% / 50%	24	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 58%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	8.5	7.2	46% / 52%	22	over
2024 W15	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 53%	3	over
2024 W15	Rush yds	77.5	48	22% / 50%	65	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 57%	1	over
2024 W13	Rec yds	8.5	10	55% / 49%	6	under
2024 W13	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 50%	1	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	58.5	64	56% / 49%	103	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 59%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	4.5	3.3	45% / 51%	11	over
2024 W12	Rec	1.5	1	25% / 35%	1	under
2024 W12	Rush yds	74.5	51	24% / 50%	13	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 47%	1	over
2024 W11	Rec yds	6.5	3.3	39% / 51%	9	over
2024 W11	Rec	1.5	1	29% / 44%	1	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	49.5	34	29% / 51%	63	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 49%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	8.5	6.5	44% / 50%	11	over
2024 W8	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 51%	1	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	56.5	56	50% / 51%	65	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 61%	1	over
2024 W7	Rec yds	9.5	8.4	47% / 49%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec	1.5	1	44% / 53%	0	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	60.5	56	46% / 50%	71	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 48%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	11.5	14	56% / 50%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec	1.5	2	64% / 60%	0	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	53.5	62	59% / 50%	18	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	58% TD chance	58% / 52%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	15.5	17	53% / 50%	12	under
2024 W4	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 50%	3	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	66.5	67	50% / 50%	101	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 39%	1	over
2024 W3	Rec yds	10.5	9.2	46% / 51%	4	under
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	27% / 36%	1	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	55.5	35	26% / 50%	33	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 44%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	10.5	10	49% / 52%	3	under
2024 W2	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 60%	1	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	55.5	30	18% / 49%	133	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 32%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	8.5	11	57% / 49%	49	over
2024 W1	Rec	1.5	2	60% / 53%	3	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	42.5	28	28% / 50%	40	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 37%	1	over
2023 W18	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 35%	1	over
2023 W18	Rec yds	11.5	9.9	45% / 50%	10	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	11.5	9.9	45% / 50%	10	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	11.5	9.9	45% / 50%	10	under
2023 W18	Rush yds	40.5	42	53% / 49%	25	under
2023 W18	Rush yds	40.5	42	53% / 51%	25	under
2023 W18	Rush yds	40.5	42	53% / 51%	25	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 35%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 31%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	10.5	11	50% / 49%	32	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	10.5	11	50% / 48%	32	over
2023 W17	Rec	1.5	2	57% / 59%	4	over
2023 W17	Rec	1.5	2	57% / 58%	4	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	41.5	32	36% / 50%	44	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	41.5	32	36% / 50%	44	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 42%	0	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 44%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	12.5	13	52% / 50%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	12.5	13	52% / 51%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	12.5	13	52% / 51%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 45%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 42%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 41%	0	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	39.5	40	50% / 51%	53	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	39.5	40	50% / 53%	53	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	41.5	40	47% / 50%	53	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 40%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 35%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	20.5	13	34% / 46%	11	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	20.5	13	34% / 50%	11	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	20.5	13	34% / 49%	11	under
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	2	24% / 42%	2	under
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	2	24% / 42%	2	under
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 56%	2	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	40.5	42	52% / 50%	53	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	41.5	42	50% / 50%	53	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	42.5	42	49% / 51%	53	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 52%	0	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 56%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	20.5	16	42% / 49%	59	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	18.5	16	45% / 50%	59	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	18.5	16	45% / 51%	59	over
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 53%	7	over
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 53%	7	over
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 51%	7	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	61.5	66	54% / 50%	73	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	61.5	66	54% / 50%	73	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	60.5	66	55% / 50%	73	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 37%	1	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	1	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	7.5	5.0	42% / 51%	119	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	7.5	5.0	42% / 51%	119	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	7.5	5.0	42% / 50%	119	over
2023 W10	Rec	1.5	1	38% / 50%	6	over
2023 W10	Rec	1.5	1	38% / 48%	6	over
2023 W10	Rec	1.5	1	38% / 49%	6	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	45.5	50	56% / 51%	38	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	45.5	50	56% / 52%	38	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	45.5	50	56% / 51%	38	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 39%	1	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 29%	1	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	7.5	6.6	46% / 50%	4	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	7.5	6.6	46% / 50%	4	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	7.5	6.6	46% / 50%	4	under
2023 W9	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 49%	1	under
2023 W9	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 49%	1	under
2023 W9	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 50%	1	under
2023 W9	Rush yds	41.5	49	60% / 50%	63	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	44.5	49	56% / 50%	63	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 35%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 27%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	8.5	6.4	42% / 49%	20	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	8.5	6.4	42% / 50%	20	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	8.5	6.4	42% / 50%	20	over
2023 W8	Rec	1.5	1	42% / 48%	2	over
2023 W8	Rec	1.5	1	42% / 48%	2	over
2023 W8	Rec	1.5	1	42% / 49%	2	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	35.5	34	48% / 50%	59	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	36.5	34	46% / 49%	59	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 47%	1	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 46%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	9.5	5.7	38% / 50%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	9.5	5.7	38% / 49%	0	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	62.5	54	39% / 51%	23	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	62.5	54	39% / 50%	23	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	62.5	54	39% / 50%	23	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 40%	1	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 43%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	7.5	5.2	41% / 51%	25	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	7.5	5.2	41% / 51%	25	over
2023 W6	Rec	1.5	1	36% / 48%	2	over
2023 W6	Rec	1.5	1	36% / 50%	2	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	59.5	42	30% / 50%	31	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	59.5	42	30% / 50%	31	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	58.5	42	31% / 50%	31	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 54%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 61%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	7.5	6.1	46% / 50%	33	over
2023 W5	Rec	1.5	1	37% / 44%	4	over
2023 W5	Rec	1.5	1	37% / 45%	4	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	65.5	74	59% / 50%	10	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	65.5	74	59% / 51%	10	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	65.5	74	59% / 50%	10	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 34%	1	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 32%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	6.5	5.4	46% / 51%	6	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	6.5	5.4	46% / 52%	6	under
2023 W4	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 39%	2	over
2023 W4	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 39%	2	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	53.5	65	63% / 50%	45	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	53.5	65	63% / 49%	45	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	51.5	65	66% / 50%	45	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 43%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 44%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 37%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	9.5	11	56% / 50%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	9.5	11	56% / 48%	0	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	54.5	61	57% / 50%	70	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	52.5	61	59% / 50%	70	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	52.5	61	59% / 50%	70	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 38%	1	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 33%	1	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 35%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	6.5	8.3	56% / 55%	42	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	6.5	8.3	56% / 51%	42	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	7.5	8.3	53% / 47%	42	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	53.5	44	37% / 53%	87	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	55.5	44	35% / 50%	87	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	55.5	44	35% / 50%	87	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 45%	1	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 43%	1	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 41%	1	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	7.5	–	– / 52%	7	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	5.5	–	– / 53%	7	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	5.5	–	– / 52%	7	over
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 39%	1	under
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 40%	1	under
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 39%	1	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	60.5	–	– / 50%	59	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	62.5	–	– / 50%	59	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	58.5	–	– / 51%	59	over

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 30.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 24.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 1.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 8.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 29.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 23.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 6.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 21.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 13.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 12.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 20.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 20.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 21.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Under 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W18 Under 49.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2024 W18 Over 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 65.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W15 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W15 Over 77.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology