WR · JAX · 126 lines since 2023
Brian Thomas Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Brian Thomas Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 18%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 20 (P(over) 65%)
- Line 24.5 rec yds — we project 35 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 53%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 21, under 14 (35 graded)
- Receptions over 17, under 18 (35 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 22 (35 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 18–39 · Pre-snap motion 3–1 · Missed tackles 9–4 · Starters out on defense 4–3 · Middle of the field 4–8 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Play action 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 20 | 65% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 35 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 39% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 42 | 65% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 47 | 62% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 40 | 57% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 60 | 69% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 79% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 20.5 | 26 | 63% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 50 | 56% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 57% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 50% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 57% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 45 | 52% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 46 | 52% / 50% | 87 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 42 | 48% / 49% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 23.5 | – | – / 48% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 61% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 70 | 51% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 23.5 | 27 | 59% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 68 | 51% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 22.5 | 29 | 66% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 69 | 57% / 51% | 90 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 27 | 67% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 69 | 59% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 27 | 63% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 67 | 56% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 67% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 74 | 59% / 51% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 29 | 62% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 77 | 53% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 25.5 | 32 | 67% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 100 | 67% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 69% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 82.5 | 74 | 43% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 62 | 38% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 35% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 61 | 40% / 50% | 132 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 63 | 47% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 58% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 51 | 40% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 51 | 38% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 44 | 44% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 22% / 33% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 63 | 60% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 51 | 45% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 35% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 50 | 47% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 64 | 56% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 56 | 51% / 51% | 122 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 47 | 52% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 41 | 53% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | – | – / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 47% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 43.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 45.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 43.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 45.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 66.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 59.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 56.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 73.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 82.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 82.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 82.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 76.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 76.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 73.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology