TE · LV · 109 lines since 2023
Brock Bowers Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Brock Bowers, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 43% — we make it 38%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 21 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 74.5 rec yds — we project 54 (P(over) 32%)
- Line 6.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 38%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 14, under 17 (31 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 17 (31 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 20 (31 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 8 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 4–6 · model 27–23 · Pre-snap motion 7–5 · Freezing 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 5–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Missed tackles 5–2 · Short week 1–0 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Play action 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 54 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 38% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 49 | 31% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 28 | 25% / 50% | 116 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 18.5 | 14 | 29% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 33 | 26% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 15 | 35% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 39 | 36% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 53 | 45% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 59% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 47 | 38% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 47 | 36% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 52% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 51 | 30% / 50% | 72 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 30% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 21.5 | 18 | 36% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 49 | 29% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 47% / 52% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 36 | 30% / 51% | 127 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 46% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 52 | 46% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 45 | 36% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 56% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 46 | 43% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 54% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 61 | 47% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 46% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 50 | 25% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 33% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 50 | 29% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 36% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 52 | 32% / 51% | 99 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 32% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 51 | 39% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 66 | 44% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 43% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 43 | 29% / 50% | 140 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 51 | 38% / 51% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 45 | 40% / 51% | 126 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 48 | 35% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 53 | 39% / 52% | 58 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 49% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 49 | 38% / 51% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 56% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 49 | 48% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 43 | 49% / 52% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 49 | 46% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 38 | 38% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 22 | 32% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | – | – / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 48% | 6 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 69.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 59.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 74.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 74.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 69.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 69.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 69.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 69.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 58.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 64.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 76.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 71.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 71.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 70.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 70.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology